Reflecting on President Trump
11 Nov 2016
I, and no doubt the rest of the world, have now had more than 24 hours to digest what is perhaps the biggest political shock to have happened in our lifetimes.
The thought of ‘President Trump’ 12 months ago seemed even more far-fetched than the UK voting to leave the EU but here we are with both things having happened and a new political and world order about to be unleashed.
There will no doubt be many millions of column inches reflecting on how we have got to this place but to my mind you can certainly see the similarities between Brexit and Trump’s victory.
Both appear to be an anti-establishment vote predicated on an appeal to ‘take back control’ or ‘make America great again’.
They are reactions to a narrative which suggested that it has been the elites who have benefited at the expense of the ‘ordinary man or woman’ in the street.
Trump was convincing in his suggestion that he could turn this around.
Certainly in his case – let’s not forget him being a ‘billionaire’ businessman – his victory was won as a perceived ‘outsider’ versus the Washington ‘establishment’.
A man with no political experience who has uttered some of the most extreme views ever heard on the hustings; who comes with a huge degree of controversial baggage having targeted many minorities and has still triumphed against the perceived political ‘insider’ that was Hillary Clinton.
The fact that the numbers of those who voted for him are a relatively small majority of the overall numbers eligible to vote will perhaps make it even more galling for Democrat voters – especially when you consider that Clinton polled more votes across the entire country!
Trump tapped into the anti-establishment ‘vibe’ that is sweeping the Western world and it will be interesting to see if this continues to be played out in both the French and German elections this year and whether the UK’s EU exit is not the last we see throughout the course of the decade.
The big question now of course is what happens next?
Will Trump follow through on his electioneering rhetoric or will we see a more measured approach?
His victory speech was certainly far more conciliatory than we have heard before.
Plus the fact he will have some political heavyweights around him – Giuliani and Gingrich to name just two – plus a Senate and House of Representatives (who I suspect will not be too compliant) gives cause for hope.
Will that wall get built?
Will he ban Muslims from entering the country?
Will he ride roughshod over the constitution?
I doubt it.
However Barack Obama must be thinking that some of his key policies, perhaps most notably Obamacare, are not going to last too long into a Trump term.
Overall, as with the post-EU referendum mode, I suspect the spectrum of dire consequences will not be as real or as damaging as many have predicted.
The financial markets – always a sign of whether we should be truly fearful or not – appear to have taken the news relatively well.
Big falls have already been offset and at the time of writing gains have been made.
The idea appears to be that Trump’s trade focus will be positive for both the UK and the US – certainly the idea we will be at the back of the queue when it comes to a trade deal seems much less likely.
Time will clearly show us the potential positives that the UK might see.
From a housing and mortgage market perspective I suspect there will be little impact.
London estate agents may be feeling cock-a-hoop at the thought of more money working its way into the super-prime market but outside of this it’s not likely to cause great change.
Perhaps inflation may not rise as quickly as previously thought and therefore increases to rates may be further away. Ultimately our market’s influencers will come from within rather than outside these shores.
My own perception is that, short-term at least, surprise (and panic) will be followed – indeed we may already be in this period – by a swift recovery and a new normal.
The more medium to long-term impact of a Trump Presidency will of course depend on what he does, and quite frankly it’s very difficult to predict what his priorities will be and how the Republican majorities in Congress will react.
At this point it’s fair to say that being in a position of not knowing what comes next might be preferable to actually knowing.
It’s worth looking into later life lending
05 Jun 2018
SVRs are a cash cow for many mortgage lenders
04 Jun 2018
Leaving a network should be more straightforward
08 May 2018
Advisers must beware leasehold ‘minefield’
16 Apr 2018
It’s just not cricket
12 Apr 2018
Proc fee timescales are way off
29 Mar 2018
Opening at weekends shouldn’t be a priority
13 Mar 2018
Buy-to-let advice is needed more than ever
08 Feb 2018
Open Banking is a revolution without the fanfare
16 Jan 2018
A is for Affordability
15 Nov 2017
Thinking of going DA
27 Oct 2017
Mortgage advisers are great so sell your skills
04 Sep 2017
Technology must ease broker buy-to-let burden
30 Aug 2017
Looking ahead at portfolio buy-to-let changes
02 Aug 2017
Borrowers need choice on free legals
16 Jun 2017
Work smarter, not harder
08 Jun 2017
Politicians not facing up to ageing population
26 May 2017
A nation of FTBs in need of flexibility
04 Apr 2017
Buy-to-let uncertainty is not over yet
27 Mar 2017
Whose customer is it anyway?
13 Feb 2017
Embrace technology and be indispensible
20 Dec 2016
Preparing clients for rising inflation
21 Nov 2016
Reflecting on President Trump
11 Nov 2016
Time for something big?
14 Oct 2016
11 Oct 2016
Take a look beyond these shores
26 Sep 2016
We are letting down existing borrowers
06 Sep 2016
There’s no shame in getting help
18 Jul 2016
The intermediary is king
11 Jul 2016
Interest in equity release hotting up
29 Jun 2016
Carney’s Brexit warnings should not be silenced
03 Jun 2016
FCA will intervene with later life market
26 Apr 2016
Thank God, King’s reign is over
09 Mar 2016
‘Level the playing field’ strategy flawed
09 Feb 2016
Paradigm unveils MCD events
09 Feb 2016
Change is constant
08 Oct 2015
Landlords cash in on PRS
22 Sep 2015
MCD – no grace but plenty of favours
16 Sep 2015
Remortgagers play at ‘chicken or egg’
29 Jul 2015
BTL has closed the housing gap
20 Jul 2015
Analysis: Writing a will can avoid a death blow
15 Jul 2015
Waiving Stamp Duty won't encourage downsizing
08 Jun 2015
Damned if they do, damned if they don’t
01 Jun 2015
In the Spotlight with Bob Hunt
26 May 2015
Election result provides stability
20 May 2015
‘Grey borrower’ power is set to grow
13 May 2015
MMR 12 months on
13 Apr 2015
Mind the protection gap
09 Apr 2015
Analysis: Change status with the right support
08 Apr 2015
Housing will be election battleground
16 Mar 2015
Securing the specialist string to your bow
04 Mar 2015
Interest rate direction is anyone’s guess
04 Mar 2015
Regulatory B2L change is inevitable
12 Feb 2015
Analysis: Do your homework with relationships
04 Feb 2015
Lenders rising to the self-employed challenge
04 Feb 2015
The sectors to watch in 2015
06 Jan 2015
A helping hand
05 Jan 2015
Can a landlord be truly ‘accidental’?
17 Dec 2014
Coming in from the cold
05 Dec 2014
Analysis: Why distribution demands inclusion
12 Nov 2014
Analysis: Broker community boosted by HSBC
15 Oct 2014
Just when I thought I was out
08 Sep 2014
Analysis: Owning a home is not out of reach
03 Sep 2014
Analysis: Get set for more BoE intervention
20 Aug 2014
Welcome to the Twilight Zone
11 Aug 2014
MMR is enough to slow the bubble
09 Jul 2014
Help to Buy remains in the spotlight
08 Jul 2014
It’s good to talk
20 Jun 2014
H2B a rare housing policy success
18 Jun 2014
The better option to going direct
14 May 2014
FCA concerned by packaging renaissance
12 May 2014
Watch out for European regulation by year-end
06 May 2014
Cross-sales not just for times of crisis
16 Apr 2014
Brokers in the dock
26 Mar 2014
Paradigm launches protection arm
21 Mar 2014
‘MMR Day’ may be a damp squib
12 Mar 2014
Make sure your papers are in order
12 Mar 2014
Countdown to MMR
12 Feb 2014
A big year ahead for lenders
04 Feb 2014
BoE is unlikely to be trigger-happy
15 Jan 2014
We’re not in 2008 anymore
09 Jan 2014
FCA cannot ignore views of smaller firms
13 Dec 2013
The Prediction Game
06 Dec 2013
Stay ahead of the regulator with CPD
27 Nov 2013
Living up to expectations
15 Nov 2013
MMR compliance underpins success
30 Oct 2013
Bank of England must follow words with actions
02 Oct 2013
Lean times leave a leaner, keener core
04 Sep 2013
If you don't ask lenders, you don't get
22 Aug 2013
Steady as she goes is the right approach
20 Aug 2013
Are we about to see a broker boom?
16 Jul 2013
Now is not the time for procrastination
10 Jul 2013
Improving standards is no grounds for complaint
03 Jul 2013
Is product innovation being tied in knots?
24 Jun 2013
We can’t rely on external stimulus
06 Jun 2013
Put your services in the shop window
06 Jun 2013
30 May 2013
Does the FCA understand human frailty?
07 May 2013
Has the mortgage market regained its mojo?
17 Apr 2013
Help to Buy plus prudence equals prosperity
05 Apr 2013
Size matters on capital adequacy
04 Mar 2013
HS2? I’d rather see more houses built instead
06 Feb 2013
95% LTV mortgages are not back... yet
22 Jan 2013
Regulators have listened to feedback
21 Jan 2013
The Great House Price Debate
07 Jan 2013
Keeping your clients' wills up to date
02 Jan 2013
Funding for Lending is hotting up
01 Nov 2012
First-time buyers facing uphill struggle
06 Sep 2012
Rate competition offers opportunity for advice
26 Jul 2012
Interest-only compliance is critical
16 Jul 2012
Know your broker must not compromise diversity
29 Jun 2012
Pile 'em high is no longer an option
18 May 2012
The evolution of the adviser
02 Apr 2012
The importance of clarity
28 Mar 2012
Mortgage industry needs new blood
07 Feb 2012
What is January good for?
04 Jan 2012
Riding to Euro Armageddon
02 Dec 2011
A closer look at the CML's MICE
08 Nov 2011
Navigating the social media maelstrom
05 Oct 2011
MMR delay welcome
07 Jul 2011
Surety of mortgage is often worth paying for
28 Apr 2011
Industry must step up for first-time buyers
06 Apr 2011
Springtime for mortgages
11 Mar 2011
United industry front vital to shape MMR
04 Mar 2011
Cross selling should be core strategy
21 Feb 2011
2011 the year of remortgage
17 Jan 2011
Don’t put all your eggs in the mortgage basket
23 Dec 2010
MMR delays don’t mean no change
10 Dec 2010
Imagine all those people
17 Nov 2010
Remember, remember it's always November
28 Oct 2010
Remortgage market not dead
06 Oct 2010
Urgent necessity prompts many to do things
15 Sep 2010
Metro Bank will be one of the first MMR lenders
02 Aug 2010
15 Jul 2010
Don't let opportunities go to waste
25 Jun 2010